Tag Archives: Grexit

On the merits of Option #2

From his perch, Torrens reckons that Mr Tspiras should listen to the the advice of Marx (Groucho, that is) and choose not to belong to a club that would have Greece as a member. Particularly when that club is the euro zone, and the conditions of membership are those laid out by Mr. Schäuble (his Option #1, which Greece agreed to). Instead, Greece should take Mr Schauble up on his alternative offer (his Option # 2) for a “time out” from the euro as he put it.

Although the second option was most likely intended as a belittling negotiation tactic to force Greece to capitulate (had he been serious,  Mr. Schäuble would surely have put it on the table months before), there may be some merit to the option, and one should think it through before dismissing it.

In many respects, Mr Schauble’s Option 2 harks back to the Bretton Woods system in roughly 20 years before 1971 when most of the world had fixed, but adjustable exchange rates. Under the system, if a country’s exchange rate had become misaligned (typically over-valued and uncompetitive) leaving the county short of the money it needed to meet its import needs, it could have gone to the IMF for short term financing to cover the import bill while at the same time it took remedial measures to address its external imbalance. The adjustments typically included a devaluation of its exchange rate and reforms to reduce spending.

In addition, like the Bretton Woods system before it, Mr. Schäuble’s second option would also allow Greece to write down its debts. Right now, Greece cannot do this because doing so would force the ECB to withdraw its emergency lending assistance (this is what allows Greece to stay in the euro and ensures that its banks remain functional, albeit barely).

But if Greece exited the eurozone and had its own currency, Greece would be able to announce a standstill on its debt payments. It could use that time to renegotiate with creditors. This would put Greece in a fairly good bargaining position because it could conceivably threaten not to pay back anything.

Given that nearly all the debt is held by official creditors, writing off most of that debt would allow Greece to access private markets again. Moreover, if it also implemented many of the proposed structural reforms, Greece could also become a favourable investment destination.

Torrens reckons that it’s time to take Mr. Schäuble’s second option seriously.  To paraphrase Einstein, is it not insane to keep repeating the same mistakes over and over in the hope that the outcomes will change?

Some worry that the Greek currency would fall by 50%. But to put that into perspective the Australian dollar has fallen about 30% in the last year and no one has battered an eyelid (the RBA is even calling for more)!

Don’t get me wrong, eventually Greece will overcome the negative consequences of the bailout program and economic conditions in Greece will improve. Markets do work, even in the face of huge debt over-hang and excessive austerity. But that could take a long time and progress will be slow.  An exit and substantial debt write down would be better.

Last, is it just me, or is Varoufakis another incarnation Peter Garret, the leftist lead singer of Midnight Oil, and Australian Labor Party MP?